trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 6 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 50% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 26 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 42% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.3% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -18.0% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.9% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -33.2% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | May 25 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 25 | $52 | −$1 | -2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 25 | $53 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 24 | $42 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | May 24 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | May 23 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? | Dec 12 | $5 | +$1 | +27% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? | Nov 26 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 25 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Brighton win on 2025-12-03? | Nov 24 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? | Nov 19 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Nov 18 | $5 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 21 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? | Aug 11 | $14 | −$4 | -28% |
| Will Nick Delehanty win the Irish Presidential Election? | Aug 11 | $41 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $130 in August? | Aug 10 | $48 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? | Aug 10 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 10 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? | Aug 10 | $21 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? | Aug 10 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump mention "Sydney Sweeney" again by Friday? | Aug 08 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Aug 08 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? | Aug 07 | $57 | $0 | -0% |