Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
0F 0x0f0b…f901 sports 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,926 (+13%) realized +$10,194 · open −$268
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate58%186W / 132L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$1,070est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$202
7 days+$184
14 days+$7,744
30 days+$7,445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$9,910
other 4% −$130
world 1% −$397
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +69.2% +53.1% 55% 55% -8.6%
≤30d 284 +21.8% +10.2% 55% 54% -0.3%
≤90d 318 +26.8% +14.7% 58% 57% +2.0%
all 318 +26.8% +14.7% 58% 57% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +14.7% 57% +2.0%
10% +3.7% 56% -7.8%
15% -6.3% 52% -16.7%
20% -15.5% 43% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +52% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$210 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,194
Unrealized−$268
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses186 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$1,070
Open positions1
Markets (closed)318 / 319
History coverage65d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ 0¢ $268 $0 −$268 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $42 +$58 +138%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $214 +$115 +54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $154 +$66 +43%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $150 +$150 +100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $403 −$397 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$108 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $603 −$602 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $318 −$314 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $208 +$122 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $943 −$943 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $547 −$547 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $520 +$480 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $60 +$140 +233%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $260 +$240 +92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $56 +$144 +257%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $16 +$184 +1150%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $32 +$168 +525%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $577 −$574 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $310 −$310 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $511 −$511 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $630 +$868 +138%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $358 +$302 +84%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $378 −$378 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $516 −$516 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $344 +$211 +61%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $147 −$147 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $178 +$377 +212%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $195 +$304 +156%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $611 +$488 +80%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $680 +$319 +47%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $580 +$419 +72%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $500 −$500 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $370 +$629 +170%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $433 +$316 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $270 +$229 +85%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $390 −$390 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $32 +$467 +1437%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $490 −$490 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $215 +$284 +132%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $140 +$359 +257%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $230 +$269 +117%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $352 +$492 +140%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $550 +$449 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 3m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 42¢ $42 11m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $330 35m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $214 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $219 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 70¢ $154 2h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $268 4h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $300 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $150 7h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $40 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $11 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $28 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $28 27h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 50¢ $50 27h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $403 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $108 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $559 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 41¢ $4 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $40 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 57¢ $318 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $330 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $208 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 68¢ $282 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 68¢ $659 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 67¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $547 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $520 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $60 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY LYON 52¢ $260 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.29 · official $0.29 (match) · 826 history records