Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f0c…e041 sports 5 markets active 5d ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1
other 23% +$3
crypto 16% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -11.2% -19.6% 50% 50% +12.5%
≤30d 5 -23.0% -30.3% 40% 40% -11.0%
≤90d 5 -23.0% -30.3% 40% 40% -11.0%
all 5 -23.0% -30.3% 40% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 40% -11.0%
10% -37.0% 40% -19.5%
15% -43.1% 40% -27.3%
20% -48.7% 40% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage23d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 11 $3 +$2 +78%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 30 $2 +$3 +107%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? May 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia BUY CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 30¢ $1 5d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $3 12d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Pl BUY Eintracht Spandau 44¢ $2 17d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 47¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 19? BUY Down 31¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 7 history records