Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f0d…92a7 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 695d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$154,423 (-77%) realized −$154,419 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,173per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$113
30 days−$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$155,547
crypto 13% +$648
other 8% +$431
world 1% −$5
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 22 -1.8% -11.2% 18% 0% -11.4%
all 35 -2.2% -11.5% 43% 6% -79.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 6% -79.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 6% -81.2%
15% -27.7% 6% -83.0%
20% -34.8% 6% -84.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,058) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$9,734 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

695d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized−$154,419
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage695d
Avg bet$5,173
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes $66 $69 +$2 (+3%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 70¢ $23 $19 −$3 (-14%)
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Yes $4 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for New York Jets next? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Maxx Crosby play for Carolina Panthers next? Jun 07 $3,566 −$113 -3%
ITF Tsaghkadzor: Valentini Grammatikopoulou vs Kristina Kroitor May 24 $0 $0 +0%
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? May 19 $1,058 +$16 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $53 −$1 -1%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Cyprus vs France May 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 14 $237 −$14 -6%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? May 14 $300 −$23 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 14 $337 −$4 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 14 $1,089 −$6 -1%
US strike on Colombia by December 31? May 12 $153 −$8 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? May 11 $163 $0 +0%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 11 $130 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 09 $32 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 May 09 $58 $0 +0%
Yo FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 09 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 Eastern Conference Finals MVP? May 09 $9 $0 +3%
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? May 06 $4 $0 +0%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam? Apr 29 $6 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Apr 28 $902 −$8 -1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $155 −$6 -4%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Apr 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March? Apr 16 $21 $0 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $8 $0 +1%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Feb 28 $5 +$3 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 03 $155,548 −$155,548 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 03 $3 +$2 +67%
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $5,202 +$330 +6%
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Oct 30 $4,992 +$203 +4%
Bitcoin new all time high in 2024? Nov 06 $15,212 +$23 +0%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 16 $1 −$1 -100%
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $764 +$53 +7%
Will $ETH reach 3.7k in July? Aug 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will $BTC reach 80k in July? Aug 01 $2,675 +$39 +1%
Will $BTC reach 75k in July? Aug 01 $7,532 +$587 +8%
Ethereum above $3,500 on July 26? Jul 27 $228 +$13 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $3 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $11 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $12 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $12 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $8 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $7 1h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $9 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $8 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $4 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $14 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes $15 2h
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes $14 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.68 · official $88.68 (match) · 778 history records