Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

0F 0x0f0e…7d97 other 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$669 (-23%) realized −$1,003 · open +$334

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate21%6W / 23L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$84per market

Trades / day18.0pace

Fees−$35est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$1,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-45.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	29	-39.2%	-45.0%	21%	21%	-25.0%
≤30d	29	-39.2%	-45.0%	21%	21%	-25.0%
≤90d	29	-39.2%	-45.0%	21%	21%	-25.0%
all	29	-39.2%	-45.0%	21%	21%	-25.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover18.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-45.0%	21%	-25.0%
10%	-50.3%	21%	-32.2%
15%	-55.1%	21%	-38.7%
20%	-59.5%	21%	-44.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -39% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -72% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$156 vs −$56 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.72 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$1,064

Realized−$1,003

Unrealized+$334

Win rate (resolved)21%

Wins / losses6 / 23

Est. fees paid−$35

Open positions5

Markets (closed)29 / 34

History coverage3d

Avg bet$84

Trades / day18.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 29 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	No	49¢	74¢	$500	$760	+$260 (+52%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5	Under	45¢	61¢	$200	$271	+$71 (+36%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	3¢	$10	$15	+$5 (+52%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	5¢	$10	$9	−$1 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$10	$8	−$2 (-19%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 23	$182	+$108	+59%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$41	+$292	+711%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria?	Jun 23	$51	−$51	-100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$152	+$131	+86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$152	−$150	-99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout	Jun 22	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	Jun 22	$26	−$26	-100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	Jun 22	$184	+$201	+109%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$252	−$252	-100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Jun 22	$162	+$119	+73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score	Jun 21	$314	−$314	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 21	$102	−$92	-90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$153	−$150	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$21	−$20	-97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$76	+$87	+114%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$3	−$3	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao?	Jun 21	$10	−$10	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5	BUY Under	46¢	$51	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5	BUY Under	46¢	$51	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$102	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$102	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$51	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$102	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$51	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5	BUY Under	44¢	$102	1h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	49¢	$102	1h
Spread: England (-2.5)	SELL Ghana	100¢	$290	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$333	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$10	4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	5¢	$21	4h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$31	4h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY Ghana	62¢	$182	4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	27h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	14¢	$10	27h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	27h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	27h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw?	BUY Yes	7¢	$10	27h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$51	30h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Austria	60¢	$152	31h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	53¢	$152	36h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	41h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$10	41h
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout	BUY Mentality Monster	10¢	$10	42h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	100¢	$385	44h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt?	BUY Yes	23¢	$26	45h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,063.88 · official $1,063.88 (match) · 60 history records