Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f0f…c8ae politics 253 markets active 1h ago coverage 607d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$872 (-0%) realized −$822 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate41%100W / 144L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,591per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$9,357now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$238
14 days−$415
30 days−$415
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 27% −$536
other 22% −$269
culture 20% −$159
sports 13% −$69
economics 11% +$2
crypto 4% −$48
world 2% −$23
tech 0% −$2
weather 0% −$86
finance 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +2.7% -7.1% 29% 12% -9.9%
≤30d 57 -6.8% -15.6% 23% 9% -10.2%
≤90d 72 -6.5% -15.4% 33% 7% -10.1%
all 244 -1.2% -10.6% 41% 8% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 8% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 2% -26.2%
20% -34.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

607d coverage
Net worth$9,357
Realized−$822
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses100 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)244 / 253
History coverage607d
Avg bet$2,591
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 85¢ $4,527 $4,524 −$3 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $3,329 $3,327 −$2 (-0%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $1,057 $1,056 −$1 (-0%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $432 $387 −$45 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Waymo IPO before 2027? No 95¢ 96¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 97¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rod Strozier win The Bachelorette Season 22? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $2,556 −$26 -1%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $2,448 −$18 -1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $8 +$3 +43%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 Jun 23 $9 +$2 +19%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1,951 −$16 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5,212 −$16 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,325 −$21 -1%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $697 −$3 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $7,400 −$13 -0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,115 −$33 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5,947 −$38 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $947 −$2 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,314 −$12 -1%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1,641 −$4 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 19? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $2,013 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? A Jun 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $500 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,987 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5,093 −$35 -1%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 18 $1,073 −$5 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,026 −$10 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $6,001 +$11 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +7%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 15 $22 −$2 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 15 $32 −$10 -31%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $52 −$3 -6%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 15 $3 $0 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$3 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$5 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$3 -19%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 −$37 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on Jun 12 $7 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 12 $11 +$2 +18%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $504 −$12 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,877 −$5 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$19 -37%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $12 −$8 -68%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 −$10 -54%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $212 −$5 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 85¢ $816 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $853 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $595 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $1,059 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $610 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $3,337 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $4,547 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $8 3h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $1,133 3h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $27 13h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $20 14h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $40 21h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $5 31h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $1,935 35h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $37 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $184 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $1,000 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $34 40h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $229 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $321 40h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $12 41h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $8 42h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $1,710 44h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $2,065 45h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 77¢ $239 45h
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 81¢ $607 46h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-22 BUY 84¢ $9 47h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $1,143 47h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $2,325 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $1,947 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,357.38 · official $9,357.39 (match) · 1351 history records