Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f12…59dd weather 919 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$251 (-2%) realized −$225 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate55%497W / 406L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day17.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$31
14 days−$36
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 83% −$426
crypto 14% +$93
sports 2% −$28
other 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 209 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 35% -11.3%
≤30d 615 +0.0% -9.5% 57% 13% -9.7%
≤90d 903 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 21% -11.4%
all 903 -0.8% -10.3% 55% 21% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 21% -11.4%
10% -18.8% 15% -19.9%
15% -26.7% 12% -27.6%
20% -33.9% 9% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized−$225
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses497 / 406
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions16
Markets (closed)903 / 919
History coverage80d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day17.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 903 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? No 89¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? No 85¢ 84¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? No 84¢ 83¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? No 83¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? No 89¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? No 82¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? No 71¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? No 78¢ 48¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? No 64¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 74¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15? No 86¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 15? No 87¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? No 66¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? No 67¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? No 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $103 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 3m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 84¢ $4 7m
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $4 10m
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $4 44m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 89¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? BUY No 78¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 79¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 61¢ $3 8h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY No 87¢ $4 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? BUY No 64¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY No 86¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.32 · official $92.32 (match) · 2679 history records