Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f13…0d72 politics 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$86 (+0%) realized +$86 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$240per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$15
other 40% −$11
sports 5% +$110
crypto 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +3.6% -6.3% 6% 3% -9.4%
all 112 +3.1% -6.7% 12% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 7% -9.2%
10% -15.6% 6% -17.9%
15% -23.8% 5% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×18.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.4 per $1 lost it wins $2.4
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage120d
Avg bet$240
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 24 $355 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $39 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $227 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $295 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $278 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $520 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $302 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $219 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 15 $223 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $249 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $276 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $243 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $498 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $218 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $314 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $315 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $299 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $433 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 22 $525 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $305 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $246 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $294 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $539 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 16 $253 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $305 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $756 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $305 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $290 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,158 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 19h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 19h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 25h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $50 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $50 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $35 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $35 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Boris Johnson be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $29 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 25d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $227 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $227 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $295 31d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $295 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 33d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $278 34d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $223 34d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $223 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $234 35d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $234 35d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $302 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 313 history records