Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:52:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f14…ed2c crypto 380 markets active 1d ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$33 (-2%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate36%138W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$14
14 days−$45
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -22.0% -29.4% 39% 9% -24.7%
≤30d 202 -5.4% -14.4% 39% 14% -14.5%
≤90d 380 -7.3% -16.2% 36% 16% -16.2%
all 380 -7.3% -16.2% 36% 16% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 16% -16.2%
10% -24.2% 10% -24.3%
15% -31.5% 7% -31.6%
20% -38.2% 5% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses138 / 242
Open positions0
Markets (closed)380 / 380
History coverage63d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 380 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $4 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $3 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 25¢ $3 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 91¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1101 history records