Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:48:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0f14…9d3d world 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$22
other 27% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -10.2% -18.8% 50% 0% -19.2%
≤30d 5 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 0% -11.6%
≤90d 5 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 0% -11.6%
all 5 -4.3% -13.4% 40% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -11.6%
10% -21.7% 0% -20.1%
15% -29.3% 0% -27.8%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)5 / 5
History coverage12d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 5 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 27 $89 −$22 -25%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $84 +$4 +5%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 16 $255 +$1 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $246 −$1 -0%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $256 −$3 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 13 history records