Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f18…5b28 world 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d only
✗ bot/MM pace (223 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$446 (+5%) realized +$334 · open +$112
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate60%65W / 44L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day223.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$3,340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$105
14 days+$489
30 days+$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$308
other 19% +$123
politics 12% +$70
crypto 10% +$76
tech 3% −$29
sports 3% +$44
economics 1% +$13
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (223 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +5.2% -4.8% 57% 38% -6.1%
≤30d 109 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 34% -0.0%
≤90d 109 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 34% -0.0%
all 109 +5.0% -5.0% 60% 34% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover223.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 34% -0.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 24% -9.6%
15% -22.4% 22% -18.3%
20% -30.0% 21% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$3,340
Realized+$334
Unrealized+$112
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses65 / 44
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions68
Markets (closed)109 / 161
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$54
Trades / day223.0
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 52¢ $180 $208 +$27 (+15%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $158 $154 −$4 (-3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 90¢ $143 $140 −$3 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $119 $123 +$5 (+4%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 85¢ 86¢ $119 $119 +$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $91 $96 +$5 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $89 $92 +$2 (+3%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $51 $90 +$39 (+77%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $60 $87 +$27 (+46%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 56¢ 52¢ $94 $87 −$7 (-7%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 91¢ 100¢ $76 $84 +$8 (+10%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? No 69¢ $0 $69 +$69 (+0%)
Trump goes to space in 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 50¢ 95¢ $35 $66 +$31 (+90%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $62 $66 +$3 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 48¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $60 $63 +$3 (+5%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 83¢ 85¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 93¢ 94¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+2%)
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 26¢ 18¢ $83 $58 −$25 (-30%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $60 +$7 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $140 −$65 -47%
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -18%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$16 -41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 +$55 +180%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $32 +$37 +118%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $46 +$11 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $60 +$8 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 8-14? Jun 15 $30 +$5 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $80 +$116 +144%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $40 −$13 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $65 −$28 -44%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $280 +$20 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $90 −$30 -34%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 13 $100 +$20 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 13 $61 −$21 -34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $60 +$10 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $60 −$27 -45%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $60 $0 +1%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $120 +$2 +2%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $30 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $51 +$27 +54%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 12 $66 −$27 -42%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 12 $108 +$130 +121%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $30 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $60 +$10 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $68 −$16 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 11 $90 −$9 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $110 +$11 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $60 +$13 +21%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 11 $78 +$128 +164%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $41 +$2 +6%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $30 +$29 +97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $30 $0 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $10 +$8 +85%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $91 +$22 +24%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $20 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $1 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 3h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $20 4h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $30 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $3 5h
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $6 5h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $7 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $1 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $0 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,339.87 · official $3,339.58 (match) · 3500 history records