Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0f18…c9fd sports 1182 markets active 1h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,108 (-2%) realized −$7,145 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%548W / 631L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1,184est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$669
7 days−$1,280
14 days+$464
30 days−$1,180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$10,818
other 17% +$2,765
world 0% −$530
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +7.9% -2.4% 42% 42% -25.6%
≤30d 100 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 50% -13.6%
≤90d 320 -3.1% -12.3% 48% 47% -10.0%
all 1179 -5.7% -14.7% 46% 46% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 46% -11.6%
10% -22.9% 44% -20.1%
15% -30.3% 41% -27.8%
20% -37.2% 36% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$282 vs −$258 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$277
Realized−$7,145
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses548 / 631
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,184
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1179 / 1182
History coverage217d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Yes 55¢ 64¢ $240 $277 +$37 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $85 +$434 +510%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $385 −$377 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $142 +$127 +90%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $251 +$380 +152%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $200 −$198 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 24 $729 +$708 +97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $410 −$405 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 24 $444 −$438 -99%
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $7 +$8 +119%
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $40 +$165 +414%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 23 $174 −$171 -98%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $475 −$468 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $477 +$123 +26%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 23 $428 −$423 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $92 −$90 -98%
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $218 −$215 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 23 $382 +$200 +52%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $694 +$187 +27%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $144 −$142 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 20 $530 −$523 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $170 −$167 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $395 +$409 +104%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $198 −$195 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $212 −$209 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $96 −$94 -98%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 18 $96 −$94 -98%
Set 2 Winner: Hijikata vs Lehecka Jun 18 $20 +$60 +294%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $236 −$232 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $683 +$521 +76%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $634 +$836 +132%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $169 −$166 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $375 +$253 +67%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-14.5) Jun 16 $446 +$469 +105%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 15 $94 +$120 +129%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $266 +$121 +46%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $1,036 −$1,030 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $650 +$370 +57%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $703 +$110 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 14 $371 +$271 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $593 +$143 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $367 −$361 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $146 −$144 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 14 $441 +$380 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 13 $355 −$350 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $189 +$372 +197%
Hapoel Jerusalem vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 09 $16 −$15 -98%
ITF Cuiaba: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Nick Hardt Jun 08 $101 +$26 +26%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs BIG Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualif Jun 08 $96 +$72 +75%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $571 −$560 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 55¢ $243 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 16¢ $85 7h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $385 25h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $251 28h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $200 28h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $318 31h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $410 32h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 50¢ $411 32h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 58¢ $444 2d
England vs. Ghana: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 19¢ $40 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 33¢ $77 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Under 33¢ $98 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 47¢ $366 2d
England vs. Ghana: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $7 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 48¢ $110 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $4 2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $424 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $23 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $27 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $43 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $477 2d
Ugo Humbert vs. Mattia Bellucci: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 57¢ $218 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $142 3d
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $144 3d
France vs. Iraq: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 65¢ $382 3d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 79¢ $191 3d
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Juan Bautista Torres 78¢ $503 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $169 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $2 5d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Under 56¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $277.09 · official $261.82 · 2869 history records