Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f19…e819 weather 925 markets active 1h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,463 (+15%) realized +$5,482 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%278W / 645L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$165
7 days+$381
14 days+$1,535
30 days+$2,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$5,108
politics 0% −$58
other 0% −$22
world 0% +$5
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +3.8% -6.1% 26% 26% +26.4%
≤30d 190 +40.3% +26.9% 29% 28% +20.5%
≤90d 646 +30.1% +17.7% 30% 29% +17.2%
all 923 +20.5% +9.0% 30% 29% +1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 29% +1.9%
10% -1.4% 26% -7.8%
15% -10.9% 25% -16.8%
20% -19.7% 22% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$23 · ×3.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5,482
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses278 / 645
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)923 / 925
History coverage147d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 923 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 392 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$213 +1016%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$47 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $285 +$50 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 +$44 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 14? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$159 +305%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$93 +277%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $33 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $52 −$10 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$145 +226%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$89 +428%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $82 −$45 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $14 −$2 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$5 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C or below on June 9 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 9? Jun 09 $21 +$59 +284%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $103 +$110 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$6 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 −$50 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $51 +$32 +62%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $21 +$102 +490%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 51m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 57¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 90¢ $197 5h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 9h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $52 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $98 40h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $52 42h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 46h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $19 47h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $80 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 95¢ $16 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.16 (match) · 3298 history records