Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f1b…7253 other 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$88 (-0%) realized −$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%6W / 251L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$38
sports 25% −$28
politics 8% −$8
crypto 7% −$7
economics 7% −$8
culture 6% −$7
world 3% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 187 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses6 / 251
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)257 / 257
History coverage134d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 257 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $172 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $304 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $427 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $434 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $166 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $375 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $243 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 14 $684 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $238 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $612 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $135 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $935 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $405 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $351 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $182 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $211 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $435 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $194 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $114 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $362 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $174 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $595 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $119 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 59m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 3h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $49 4h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 6h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 9h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 12h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 16h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 18h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $50 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 28h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 34h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 36h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 40h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 42h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 47h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records