Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0f20…139d other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$176 (+66%) realized +$155 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +238% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +205% what you keep after slip
Net edge+205%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$21
sports 17% +$168
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+205.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 +237.6% +205.4% 100% 100% +318.1%
all 2 +237.6% +205.4% 100% 100% +318.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +205.4% 100% +318.1%
10% +176.2% 100% +278.1%
15% +149.5% 100% +241.6%
20% +125.1% 100% +208.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +362% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +238% · $-wt +362% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$84 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 4
History coverage69d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $102 $123 +$21 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40 +$164 +413%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $7 +$4 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.28 · official $123.28 (match) · 15 history records