Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:41:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f21…3d6e other 678 markets active 2h ago coverage 293d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,566 (-4%) realized −$9,091 · open −$475
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate31%205W / 466L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$375per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$1,712est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$1,088now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 293d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$3,717
sports 36% −$13,024
world 4% +$76
crypto 3% +$257
politics 2% −$117
tech 1% −$260
finance 0% +$801
economics 0% −$192
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -39.3% -45.1% 27% 27% -33.0%
≤30d 141 -36.0% -42.1% 25% 24% -24.2%
≤90d 378 -18.8% -26.5% 29% 28% -16.2%
all 671 -17.8% -25.6% 31% 28% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 28% -15.2%
10% -32.7% 26% -23.3%
15% -39.2% 24% -30.7%
20% -45.2% 21% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$357 vs −$191 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

293d coverage
Net worth$1,088
Realized−$9,091
Unrealized−$475
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses205 / 466
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,712
Open positions7
Markets (closed)671 / 678
History coverage293d
Avg bet$375
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 671 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $895 $447 −$447 (-50%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $187 $185 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 17¢ 16¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Under 4¢ 4¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-10%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $28 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Curaçao 1¢ 1¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $497 +$155 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $340 +$93 +27%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $131 +$110 +84%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 −$21 -42%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $62 −$62 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $805 −$329 -41%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $123 +$214 +174%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $333 −$333 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $975 −$415 -43%
Spread: Qatar (-1.5) Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $104 −$84 -81%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,407 −$231 -16%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $298 +$158 +53%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $56 +$78 +139%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $173 +$182 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,064 −$1,064 -100%
Will Barron Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $621 +$456 +74%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $612 +$11 +2%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $243 −$222 -91%
Will Palestine win on 2026-06-09? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 12 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 12 $159 −$159 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $369 −$369 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 12 $1,062 −$122 -12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $937 +$335 +36%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $472 −$47 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $257 −$257 -100%
Will Greece win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $2,172 −$2,172 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $541 −$514 -95%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $26 −$20 -77%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $801 −$504 -63%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1,459 −$39 -3%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $305 −$252 -83%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $198 −$54 -27%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2,284 +$1,049 +46%
Will Armenia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $477 −$477 -100%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $235 −$235 -100%
Will El Salvador win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $457 −$457 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $190 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $309 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 4¢ $50 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 17¢ $102 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 94¢ $652 1h
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 1¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 0¢ $4 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $199 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 1¢ $42 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $241 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $298 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 53¢ $131 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $429 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 9¢ $30 5h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $29 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $268 13h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $50 13h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $49 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $57 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $62 5d
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $101 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 46¢ $100 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $299 6d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $37 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $336 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $110 6d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $123 6d
Will Switzerland score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $20 6d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $8 7d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $325 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,087.74 · official $1,087.15 (match) · 1975 history records