Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f24…1718 world 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 463d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% −$4
other 17% +$4
crypto 1% −$2
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 24% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 17 -0.8% -10.2% 24% 0% -10.0%
all 34 -2.5% -11.8% 35% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 3% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 3% -18.3%
15% -27.9% 3% -26.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

463d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage463d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $55 +$2 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $22 −$1 -4%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $85 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $64 −$5 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $78 +$2 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $19 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $71 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $86 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $44 $0 +0%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Dec 14 $1 $0 -20%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on May 23? May 22 $10 −$2 -15%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $8 +$4 +49%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $34 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $40 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 21h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $35 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $22 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $16 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $39 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $38 43h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $38 44h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $22 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $22 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $18 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $11 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $20 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $3 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $8 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.67 · official $5.67 (match) · 126 history records