Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f27…4377 crypto 239 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,046 (+14%) realized +$1,048 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%103W / 133L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$256
14 days+$256
30 days+$256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 72% +$554
other 25% +$627
sports 3% −$23
world 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 62% +19.9%
≤30d 26 +11.6% +0.9% 62% 62% +19.9%
≤90d 27 +7.4% -2.8% 59% 59% +19.4%
all 236 -5.2% -14.3% 44% 42% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 42% +6.7%
10% -22.5% 39% -3.5%
15% -30.0% 36% -12.9%
20% -36.8% 31% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$15 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$1,048
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses103 / 133
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)236 / 239
History coverage251d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $58 $58 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $29 $27 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $38 +$5 +14%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $92 +$45 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 22 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $78 −$48 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $97 +$81 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $59 +$70 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $22 +$19 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET Jun 21 $91 −$78 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $120 +$111 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$20 +50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $110 −$48 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $65 +$23 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -96%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $39 +$22 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $9 +$21 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$20 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 20 $23 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$9 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$6 +69%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $11 +$18 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Apr 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Real Betis win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-02? Nov 02 $19 +$8 +43%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Alexander Zverev Oct 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Getafe win on 2025-10-31? Oct 31 $11 +$13 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Oct 30 $9 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Oct 30 $15 −$6 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down on October 31? Oct 30 $36 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12PM ET Oct 30 $70 +$38 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10AM ET Oct 30 $61 +$42 +69%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $56 −$2 -3%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $11 +$9 +80%
Will Inter win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $23 +$13 +56%
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $8 +$6 +80%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $62 −$55 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Oct 29 $12 +$9 +74%
Will Como win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $5 −$2 -36%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Oct 29 $65 −$54 -82%
Will Atalanta win on 2025-10-28? Oct 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-10-27? Oct 27 $49 +$62 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Oct 27 $34 +$15 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $38 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $137 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 24¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $78 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $97 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $59 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06- BUY 39¢ $30 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $59 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $71 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $60 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $22 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $120 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $32 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $59 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $40 21h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $40 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $48 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $61 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 84¢ $61 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $13 27h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $62 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 29h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $39 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $9 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.35 · official $85.35 (match) · 530 history records