Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f28…7145 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$317 (-24%) realized −$260 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$293
14 days−$290
30 days−$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$324
sports 38% $0
crypto 18% −$22
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -2.6% -11.9% 54% 42% -34.3%
≤30d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 41% -33.3%
≤90d 29 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 41% -33.3%
all 29 -1.2% -10.6% 59% 41% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 41% -33.3%
10% -19.2% 31% -39.7%
15% -27.0% 28% -45.5%
20% -34.2% 24% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$46 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$260
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage10d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 36¢ 36¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 12¢ 1¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $71 −$61 -86%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 −$12 -18%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$32 +53%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$27 +37%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 −$2 -12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$32 -31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $337 −$330 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $65 +$88 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $58 +$17 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $51 28h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 6¢ $10 41h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 41h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $71 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 46¢ $98 44h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $20 46h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 13¢ $18 46h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $21 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 54¢ $50 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $45 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $41 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $30 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $30 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 3d
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 12¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $337 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $61 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.96 · official $139.96 (match) · 89 history records