Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f2f…81de other 251 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$93 (-0%) realized −$93 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$29
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$37
sports 23% −$19
politics 8% −$5
culture 6% −$6
economics 5% −$2
world 5% −$31
crypto 5% −$3
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 190 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$93
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage133d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $237 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $241 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $395 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $236 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $197 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $185 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $133 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $255 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $99 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $231 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 12 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $199 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $441 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $524 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $401 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $313 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $185 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $271 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $138 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 15m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $45 1h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $45 2h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $45 5h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $9 11h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $9 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $45 13h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $45 15h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 17h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 19h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 20h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 23h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 25h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $17 27h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $28 29h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 30h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 30h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $19 32h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 33h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 35h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 37h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 39h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 40h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 42h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 44h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 44h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 45h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.65 · official $44.65 (match) · 1408 history records