Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:05:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f30…8df6 sports 235 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$974 (-6%) realized −$974 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%122W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$274
14 days+$106
30 days+$462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$1,183
other 13% +$235
crypto 2% +$24
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +3.9% -6.0% 68% 44% -0.3%
≤30d 107 -6.0% -15.0% 56% 37% -4.1%
≤90d 235 -6.3% -15.2% 52% 42% -14.7%
all 235 -6.3% -15.2% 52% 42% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 42% -14.7%
10% -23.3% 37% -22.8%
15% -30.7% 31% -30.3%
20% -37.5% 26% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$43 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$974
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses122 / 113
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions0
Markets (closed)235 / 235
History coverage45d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 235 Trades
no open positions (62 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $519 +$135 +26%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $301 +$18 +6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $341 +$17 +5%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $33 −$21 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$9 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $88 +$4 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $142 +$58 +41%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $69 +$15 +21%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $154 +$66 +43%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $83 −$22 -26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 −$19 -21%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 −$6 -13%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 +$21 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $38 +$4 +11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 −$46 -43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 +$5 +6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $157 +$21 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$10 +31%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $23 +$6 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 +$6 +25%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -18%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $45 −$9 -21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $27 +$13 +48%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$10 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $84 +$9 +11%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Belarus win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 $0 +8%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $3 $0 +2%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Myanmar win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -75%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $33 −$4 -11%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $189 −$189 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $131 +$67 +51%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $264 −$93 -35%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $59 +$46 +78%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $346 +$50 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $465 +$76 +16%
Will Sierra Leone win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 +$1 +46%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $142 −$8 -6%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $157 −$155 -99%
Will Angola win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Benin win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bangladesh win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $3 $0 +12%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $49 −$48 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $211 +$19 +9%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $102 +$98 +97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $185 −$182 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $479 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $54 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $56 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $14 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $29 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $44 8m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 59¢ $175 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 73¢ $221 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $93 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $81 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 76¢ $226 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $18 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $358 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 95¢ $341 22h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 22h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $33 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $163 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 712 history records