Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:40:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0F 0x0f33…556c other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-17%) realized −$61 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% −$24
sports 9% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -37.6% -43.6% 40% 20% -42.9%
≤30d 5 -37.6% -43.6% 40% 20% -42.9%
≤90d 5 -37.6% -43.6% 40% 20% -42.9%
all 5 -37.6% -43.6% 40% 20% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 20% -42.9%
10% -49.0% 0% -48.4%
15% -53.9% 0% -53.4%
20% -58.4% 0% -57.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$21 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? No 96¢ 100¢ $88 $91 +$3 (+4%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? No 95¢ 94¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $30 $0 -2%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $32 +$4 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $31 −$31 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $55 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $55 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 95¢ $34 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $33 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 99¢ $35 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 91¢ $30 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $34 22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 92¢ $30 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 89¢ $32 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.06 · official $179.15 (match) · 12 history records