Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f33…a033 world 91 markets active 11h ago coverage 532d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate33%29W / 60L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$14
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$21
politics 22% −$1
other 13% −$2
sports 9% −$11
economics 6% −$2
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +8.0% -2.3% 50% 10% -5.9%
≤30d 28 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 11% -7.9%
≤90d 70 -0.8% -10.3% 30% 4% -8.8%
all 89 -6.2% -15.1% 33% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 6% -9.3%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.0%
15% -30.7% 2% -25.9%
20% -37.5% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

532d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses29 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage532d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$9 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $28 +$24 +87%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $55 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $85 −$1 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $91 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $4 −$2 -57%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $129 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $78 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $52 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $182 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $30 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $93 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $27 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $3 $0 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $39 +$5 +12%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $26 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $41 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $39 +$2 +4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $5 +$3 +47%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $82 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $63 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $9 $0 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1 $0 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $38 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $5 −$1 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $47 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $11 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $2 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $61 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $52 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $28 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $7 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $50 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $50 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $32 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $45 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.18 (match) · 352 history records