Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f37…1a63 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$29 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate25%12W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$9
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$17
sports 6% −$12
economics 5% −$1
world 4% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -8.4% -17.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 48 -7.3% -16.1% 25% 4% -10.0%
all 48 -7.3% -16.1% 25% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 4% -10.0%
10% -24.1% 2% -18.6%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses12 / 36
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)48 / 53
History coverage84d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-0%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $11 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $98 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $204 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $208 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $216 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $237 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $107 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $109 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $257 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $114 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $113 $0 +0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $114 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $114 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 10 $1 −$1 -53%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $129 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $258 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $129 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $275 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $131 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $132 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $147 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 26 $273 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 26 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $137 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $19 +$1 +7%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $18 +$1 +6%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $16 +$2 +10%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $12 +$4 +29%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 06 $12 $0 +4%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $11 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 02 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $9 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $4 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $86 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $98 2h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $98 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 4d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 5d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $98 7d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $98 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $8 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 8d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 11d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $106 13d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $106 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 16d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 19d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 19d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 23d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 25d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 26d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $110 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.76 · official $104.76 (match) · 159 history records