Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f37…9576 other 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-0%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 227L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$44
sports 20% −$15
politics 8% −$4
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$7
crypto 6% −$9
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage130d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $241 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $382 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $482 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $122 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 18 $94 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $203 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $267 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $295 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $347 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 17 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $286 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $344 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $230 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $45 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $193 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $465 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $146 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $181 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $289 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $220 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $455 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $257 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $536 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $508 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $180 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $225 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $42 1h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 2h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $43 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $42 8h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $43 9h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 11h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 12h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 20h
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 21h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 27h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 28h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 30h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 32h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 33h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 34h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $43 36h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $43 38h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 39h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 40h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 42h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 44h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 45h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 47h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $43 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $43 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $44 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $44 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.25 · official $42.25 (match) · 1346 history records