Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
0F 0x0f38…0f69 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$8 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$8
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$1
sports 25% +$10
crypto 3% −$1
politics 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 45% -2.2%
≤30d 11 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 45% -2.2%
≤90d 11 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 45% -2.2%
all 11 -3.8% -12.9% 45% 45% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -2.2%
10% -21.3% 45% -11.5%
15% -28.9% 36% -20.1%
20% -35.8% 36% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$4 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)11 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $17 −$1 (-8%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 23¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$4 -27%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +56%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$3 -59%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $8 +$7 +90%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 10 $7 −$7 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $4 37m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $2 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $3 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 44¢ $5 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $6 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $8 2h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $6 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 7h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 31h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $10 31h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $17 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes $2 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $3 2d
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY Yes $2 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 4d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $8 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 4d
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro BUY Yes 59¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.92 · official $75.92 (match) · 34 history records