Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:58:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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0F 0x0f48…0b0d crypto 1580 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$520 (-3%) realized −$540 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%815W / 753L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$88est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$63
14 days+$151
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$883
sports 35% +$156
other 2% −$36
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +25.5% +13.6% 54% 54% -0.5%
≤30d 183 +4.4% -5.5% 50% 50% -8.3%
≤90d 1568 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 49% -13.8%
all 1568 -3.2% -12.4% 52% 49% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 49% -13.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 45% -22.0%
15% -28.4% 40% -29.5%
20% -35.5% 34% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$540
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses815 / 753
Est. fees paid−$88
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1568 / 1580
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1568 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 45¢ 96¢ $20 $43 +$23 (+114%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 19¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$14 +134%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $20 +$12 +59%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $50 +$14 +28%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $52 +$24 +47%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $44 −$44 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +227%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$9 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +213%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $25 +$16 +64%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $7 −$5 -70%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -42%
Will XLG win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +192%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$15 +145%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$6 +118%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $30 +$27 +90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $21 +$13 +60%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $5 +$22 +436%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $20 +$6 +29%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 +$10 +63%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$9 +185%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $24 5m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 86¢ $32 6m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 45¢ $20 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $65 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 88¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $20 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $72 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $7 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $20 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $20 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 48¢ $4 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL Paper Rex 62¢ $4 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $4 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $20 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY Paper Rex 73¢ $40 4h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 75¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $17 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 29h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 29h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 37h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 37h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 47h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.39 · official $48.39 (match) · 3418 history records