Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f49…9e18 sports 1670 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (72 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$92 (-1%) realized +$479 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%802W / 705L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day72.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$178
14 days+$444
30 days+$470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$794
other 26% −$227
crypto 3% −$25
culture 3% −$24
politics 1% −$10
world 1% −$19
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (72 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 152 +10.5% -0.0% 57% 54% +10.4%
≤30d 1491 +6.0% -4.1% 53% 49% -4.8%
≤90d 1507 +6.0% -4.1% 53% 49% -4.9%
all 1507 +6.0% -4.1% 53% 49% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover72.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 49% -4.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 41% -14.0%
15% -21.7% 34% -22.3%
20% -29.4% 27% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$479
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses802 / 705
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1507 / 1670
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day72.3
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1507 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+71%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Under 66¢ 67¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 36¢ 36¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? No 32¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-2.5) Atlanta Braves 77¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+300%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $9 +$11 +115%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 +$8 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$4 -44%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $5 +$2 +33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +32%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$45 +882%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +52%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$7 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Spread: Tampereen Ilves (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings Jun 12 $5 +$2 +35%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 +$7 +72%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $5 +$5 +97%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-9.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$9 +188%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $5 +$5 +108%
Helsingborgs IF vs. Landskrona BoIS: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +119%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $4 +$2 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $5 +$3 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +43%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $5 +$6 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 23¢ $5 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $5 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $5 4h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $5 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $5 8h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $5 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5 28h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 35h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $5 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 39h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL United States 91¢ $50 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $5 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 82¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 53¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 6¢ $4 2d
Spread: Tampereen Ilves (-1.5) SELL Tampereen Ilves 27¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 8¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 32¢ $5 2d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 13¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $5 2d
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 41¢ $5 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 75¢ $5 2d
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) BUY Spurs 88¢ $5 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.27 · official $42.27 (match) · 3182 history records