Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f4c…f3bf crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$437 (-11%) realized −$435 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%31W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$308now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$188
7 days+$212
14 days+$199
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$21
other 23% −$206
crypto 22% −$337
world 0% +$108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +41.0% +27.6% 21% 21% +8.2%
≤30d 58 +29.7% +17.4% 21% 21% +4.3%
≤90d 144 -10.2% -18.7% 22% 22% -22.0%
all 144 -10.2% -18.7% 22% 22% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 22% -22.0%
10% -26.5% 20% -29.5%
15% -33.6% 19% -36.3%
20% -40.1% 19% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$19 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$308
Realized−$435
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses31 / 113
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions15
Markets (closed)144 / 159
History coverage62d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $98 $102 +$4 (+5%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 41¢ 40¢ $41 $40 −$2 (-4%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 30¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Yes 12¢ 12¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$1 (-13%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Croatia 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $7 +$93 +1290%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $46 +$54 +119%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $53 −$38 -71%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $50 +$50 +101%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 +$115 +2597%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 +$70 +246%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Rodri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $28 +$72 +262%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -97%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $34 +$86 +249%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $6 +$94 +1469%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 3 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $43 −$42 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $48 +$52 +109%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $40 −$39 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $43 +$107 +250%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 1h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 6¢ $6 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 30¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 9h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 12h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $46 12h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 12h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 12h
Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $11 15h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 15h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 15h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 27h
Erling Haaland: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $19 27h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 27h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 27h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $308.40 · official $308.55 (match) · 415 history records