Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:10:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f4f…1bd9 crypto 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 439d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate37%93W / 160L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$115
14 days−$91
30 days−$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$592
politics 21% −$222
other 18% −$136
crypto 9% −$294
sports 4% −$94
finance 1% −$29
culture 0% −$36
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -10.4% -19.0% 36% 26% -15.1%
≤30d 80 +15.6% +4.6% 39% 32% -11.7%
≤90d 139 +13.1% +2.4% 37% 29% -8.0%
all 253 +4.5% -5.4% 37% 30% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 30% -10.8%
10% -14.5% 25% -19.3%
15% -22.7% 21% -27.1%
20% -30.3% 17% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$13 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

439d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses93 / 160
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)253 / 258
History coverage439d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $104 $87 −$17 (-16%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $53 $63 +$10 (+20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $38 $55 +$16 (+42%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $51 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $59 +$5 +8%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $20 +$3 +17%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$11 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 −$5 -15%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 +$8 +162%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 +$1 +12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $9 +$1 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $22 +$8 +37%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$7 -66%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 +$55 +117%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 −$12 -76%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $27 +$6 +22%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $17 +$1 +5%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $8 −$1 -9%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 −$1 -35%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $46 +$4 +9%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $29 −$13 -46%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $24 −$10 -40%
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $4 −$1 -31%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $9 +$1 +13%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -92%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$3 -26%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 22 $1,143 +$22 +2%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -4%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $2 +$2 +76%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$3 +17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 −$14 -69%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32 −$16 -48%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $15 −$9 -62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $11 −$5 -46%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $3 −$2 -66%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $27 −$19 -71%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $18 −$13 -69%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -67%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 −$26 -86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 53m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 1h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 86¢ $20 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 54¢ $26 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 3h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $52 3h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 97¢ $5 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 89¢ $2 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $2 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $4 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $10 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $10 24h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 29¢ $5 24h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 25h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 25h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.76 · official $284.40 (match) · 2538 history records