Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:03:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f4f…22a8 sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-16%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%4W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$52
14 days−$48
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$23
other 38% −$13
crypto 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -23.8% -31.0% 18% 18% -44.0%
≤30d 16 -19.2% -26.9% 25% 25% -36.2%
≤90d 16 -19.2% -26.9% 25% 25% -36.2%
all 16 -19.2% -26.9% 25% 25% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.9% 25% -36.2%
10% -33.9% 25% -42.3%
15% -40.3% 25% -47.9%
20% -46.2% 25% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses4 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 28 $10 −$2 -19%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 25 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- Jun 25 $10 +$38 +385%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $7 −$7 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$10 +197%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records