Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:54:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f50…61ab other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$348 (+42%) realized +$349 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$117
14 days−$103
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$39
other 39% +$251
weather 16% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +106.4% +86.7% 100% 100% +86.7%
≤30d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 27% 27% -2.6%
≤90d 13 +9.4% -1.0% 38% 38% +27.6%
all 13 +9.4% -1.0% 38% 38% +27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 38% +27.6%
10% -10.5% 38% +15.4%
15% -19.2% 38% +4.2%
20% -27.1% 31% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +71% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$30 · ×3.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$349
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage43d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? Jun 24 $110 +$117 +106%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 17 $49 −$12 -24%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 16 $26 −$10 -38%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $118 −$116 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $31 −$14 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $39 −$38 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $32 −$13 -41%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 07 $72 +$150 +208%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 18? May 18 $101 +$40 +40%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $151 +$238 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $48 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $0 3d
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June? SELL Yes 39¢ $4 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL Yes 4¢ $36 10d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $17 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Aiemann Zahabi 13¢ $17 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.03 · official $46.03 (match) · 74 history records