Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:38:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0F
0x0f50…069b
sports · 270 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$400 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$397 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$111
Realized−$397
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses113 / 151
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions6
Markets (closed)264 / 270
History coverage67d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 6 History 264 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$1
14 days−$74
30 days−$369
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 35¢ 33¢ $35 $33 −$2 (-6%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 31¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? No 40¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 +$1 (+8%)
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 4¢ 3¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Washington Nationals 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 45¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Cleveland Guardians 44¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Pittsburgh Pirates 43¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) Avalanche 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) New York Mets 34¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Detroit Tigers 45¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Frances Tiafoe 48¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 57¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 61¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Chicago Cubs 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 50¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Toronto Blue Jays 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 60¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Athletics 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Athletics New York Yankees 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$29 -76%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $43 +$27 +65%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $41 +$29 +70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $36 +$34 +93%
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $23 +$17 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 07 $22 −$22 -99%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 06 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 06 $46 +$44 +97%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 05 $23 −$23 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $38 +$32 +86%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $37 −$36 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $19 +$31 +165%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 03 $28 +$24 +86%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 02 $31 −$30 -99%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 02 $26 +$39 +152%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $15 −$14 -98%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 01 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 01 $26 −$26 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $51 +$36 +70%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 31 $51 +$68 +134%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 31 $17 −$17 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 30 $51 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $46 +$36 +79%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 30 $30 +$36 +119%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 30 $32 −$31 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 30 $30 +$36 +119%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $10 −$9 -94%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 29 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) May 28 $31 +$39 +129%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) May 28 $31 +$43 +140%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 28 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 28 $29 +$31 +105%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 27 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) May 27 $30 +$40 +134%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 27 $29 −$28 -99%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) May 27 $24 −$24 -98%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) May 27 $21 +$34 +158%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) May 27 $22 +$18 +83%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) May 27 $21 +$24 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 94% −$357
other 4% −$58
crypto 2% +$12
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 6m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 1h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 33¢ $34 8h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 38¢ $35 22h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $43 23h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 51¢ $36 23h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 58¢ $41 23h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 4¢ $3 23h
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 35¢ $36 23h
Mexico vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 27h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $23 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $22 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 40¢ $20 5d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Golden Knights 29¢ $21 6d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ $46 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $23 6d
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $37 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 53¢ $38 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $19 8d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $0 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $15 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $12 9d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $1 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $31 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Frances Tiafoe 48¢ $15 11d
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $15 11d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 39¢ $26 11d
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 40¢ $24 11d
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ $26 11d
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) BUY Thunder 31¢ $17 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -16.4% -24.4% 45% 45% -9.8%
≤30d 104 -15.3% -23.4% 39% 38% -21.2%
≤90d 264 -7.0% -15.8% 43% 42% -15.2%
all 264 -7.0% -15.8% 43% 42% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 42% -15.2%
10% -23.9% 42% -23.3%
15% -31.2% 41% -30.7%
20% -38.0% 40% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.39 · official $111.39 (match) · 542 history records