Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
0F 0x0f52…a506 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$95 (-38%) realized −$94 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +43% what you keep after slip
Net edge+43%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$62
other 17% −$13
crypto 16% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +97.1% +78.3% 45% 41% +34.1%
≤30d 22 +97.1% +78.3% 45% 41% +34.1%
≤90d 23 +88.5% +70.6% 43% 39% +21.0%
all 29 +58.3% +43.2% 38% 34% -45.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.2% 34% -45.8%
10% +29.5% 34% -51.0%
15% +17.0% 34% -55.7%
20% +5.5% 31% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +141% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$94
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage225d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Yes 18¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Weili 43¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 2? Yes 38¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 57¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Yes 26¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Yes 55¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Valentina Shevchenko win by KO or TKO? Yes 13¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +349%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 $0 -5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +269%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -52%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +1521%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +80%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 +$3 +298%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 +$4 +42%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 −$3 -73%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -46%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $46 −$36 -78%
Will Valentina Shevchenko win by KO or TKO? Nov 16 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Newcastle (-0.5) Nov 02 $12 +$18 +144%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on November 2? Nov 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $6 44m
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 88¢ $11 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $1 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 48¢ $4 17h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 23¢ $2 17h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 18h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes $1 19h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 19h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 23h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $8 24h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 24h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes $1 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 26h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 26h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 43h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.25 · official $5.25 (match) · 58 history records