Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:19:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0F 0x0f52…9057 sports 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$354 (+16%) realized +$354 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%39W / 22L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$307
other 7% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +39.6% +26.3% 100% 100% +26.3%
all 61 +18.4% +7.1% 64% 64% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 64% +5.0%
10% -3.1% 62% -5.0%
15% -12.5% 49% -14.2%
20% -21.1% 34% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$26 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$354
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses39 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage430d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 10 $44 +$17 +40%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 29 $34 +$16 +45%
76ers vs. Pacers Feb 25 $42 +$10 +25%
Will Mali vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jan 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-24? Dec 25 $41 +$13 +32%
Grizzlies vs. Knicks Dec 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Hornets vs. Heat Oct 29 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? Oct 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia Sep 17 $10 +$24 +245%
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks Jul 22 $20 +$15 +75%
Giants vs. White Sox Jul 07 $30 +$20 +70%
Phillies vs. Rockies May 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers May 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Wolves end in a draw? May 21 $72 +$28 +39%
Mets vs. Yankees May 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Everton vs. Southampton end in a draw? May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brentford vs. Fulham end in a draw? May 20 $75 +$25 +33%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals May 18 $23 +$15 +64%
White Sox vs. Reds May 18 $34 +$17 +49%
Nationals vs. Braves May 18 $49 +$25 +50%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights May 15 $29 +$34 +117%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs May 15 $43 +$32 +75%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 15 $65 +$35 +54%
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore May 13 $28 −$2 -9%
Pirates vs. Mets May 13 $41 +$29 +70%
Capitals vs. Hurricanes May 13 $69 +$31 +45%
Thunder vs. Nuggets May 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers May 12 $42 +$23 +54%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners May 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Braves vs. Pirates May 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Celtics vs. Knicks May 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Stars vs. Jets May 10 $30 +$26 +85%
Rangers vs. Tigers May 10 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Bodo/Glimt vs. Tottenham end in a draw? May 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights May 09 $42 −$42 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Capitals May 09 $15 +$18 +122%
Stars vs. Jets May 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? May 08 $44 +$19 +43%
Knicks vs. Celtics May 08 $15 +$60 +400%
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs May 07 $23 +$27 +117%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03? May 05 $24 +$26 +108%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers May 02 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Barcelona vs. Inter end in a draw? May 02 $12 +$40 +335%
Wild vs. Golden Knights Apr 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bucks vs. Pacers Apr 30 $48 +$15 +32%
Will Arsenal vs. Paris Saint Germain end in a draw? Apr 30 $55 +$20 +37%
Avalanche vs. Stars Apr 29 $43 −$43 -100%
Rockets vs. Warriors Apr 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Heat Apr 29 $41 +$12 +28%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves Apr 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-07-02? BUY Yes 76¢ $38 1h
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $44 50d
Nuggets vs. Suns BUY Nuggets 69¢ $34 96d
76ers vs. Pacers BUY 76ers 80¢ $42 124d
Will Mali vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $32 175d
Will Gabon win on 2025-12-24? BUY No 76¢ $41 186d
Grizzlies vs. Knicks BUY Grizzlies 21¢ $11 228d
Hornets vs. Heat BUY Heat 66¢ $21 242d
Pittsburgh vs. West Virginia BUY West Virginia 29¢ $10 287d
Will Bayern München win on 2025-08-22? BUY No 22¢ $11 310d
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks BUY Diamondbacks 57¢ $20 342d
Giants vs. White Sox BUY Giants 59¢ $30 365d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Wolves end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $72 403d
Phillies vs. Rockies BUY Rockies 28¢ $14 403d
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers BUY Diamondbacks 32¢ $24 404d
Will Brentford vs. Fulham end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $75 406d
Will Everton vs. Southampton end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 406d
Mets vs. Yankees BUY Mets 39¢ $20 406d
Nationals vs. Braves BUY Braves 66¢ $49 409d
White Sox vs. Reds BUY Reds 67¢ $34 409d
Hurricanes vs. Capitals BUY Hurricanes 61¢ $23 409d
Panthers vs. Maple Leafs BUY Panthers 57¢ $43 409d
Knicks vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 65¢ $65 409d
Oilers vs. Golden Knights BUY Oilers 46¢ $29 409d
Lucknow Super Giants vs. Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 50¢ $26 411d
Pirates vs. Mets BUY Mets 59¢ $41 412d
Capitals vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 69¢ $69 412d
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers BUY Panthers 65¢ $42 413d
Thunder vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 30¢ $15 413d
Blue Jays vs. Mariners BUY Mariners 56¢ $35 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.75 · official $37.75 (match) · 122 history records