Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f53…b4c3 other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 102L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$289per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$16
politics 27% −$12
sports 14% +$35
tech 4% −$1
crypto 4% −$1
culture 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 117 +0.1% -9.4% 13% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 8% -9.5%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage132d
Avg bet$289
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $262 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $199 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $516 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $292 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $243 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 21 $715 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $294 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $254 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $414 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $228 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $274 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $220 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $228 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $245 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $284 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $466 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $201 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $235 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $254 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $278 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $277 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $274 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $272 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 12 $263 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 11 $294 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $283 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $212 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 3h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $47 3h
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $47 6h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $49 12h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $261 24d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $262 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 25d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 26d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $276 27d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $276 27d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $292 27d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $292 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $232 27d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $232 28d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $237 29d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $237 30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $243 30d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $197 30d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $197 31d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $240 32d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $240 32d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $233 32d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $233 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $294 32d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $294 33d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $254 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 353 history records