Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f53…50a0 crypto 112 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate59%66W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +13.5% +2.7% 62% 60% -9.9%
≤30d 92 +13.5% +2.7% 62% 60% -9.5%
≤90d 112 +8.1% -2.2% 59% 56% -9.8%
all 112 +8.1% -2.2% 59% 56% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.2% 56% -9.8%
10% -11.5% 56% -18.4%
15% -20.1% 56% -26.3%
20% -27.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses66 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage53d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $56 −$16 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 24 $42 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$6 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $28 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $10 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $14 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $41 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $28 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $28 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $9 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $28 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $20 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 357 history records