Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
0F 0x0f54…65ca crypto 23 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$46 (+5%) realized +$60 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% -3.3%
≤30d 22 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% -3.3%
≤90d 22 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% -3.3%
all 22 +32.6% +20.0% 55% 55% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 55% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 45% -12.6%
15% -2.0% 36% -21.0%
20% -11.6% 32% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +71% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$43 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 63¢ 46¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $78 +$110 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 23 $22 +$152 +685%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$79 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$50 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$27 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $32 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $53 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $52 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $41 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $29 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $22 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.11 · official $40.87 · 54 history records