Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:47:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f54…4a1e world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+1%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%20W / 54L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$23
14 days+$42
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$41
other 19% −$5
sports 16% −$3
politics 9% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +15.3% +4.3% 50% 12% -6.7%
≤30d 27 +6.3% -3.8% 37% 7% -7.0%
≤90d 68 +1.3% -8.4% 28% 4% -8.3%
all 74 -4.3% -13.4% 27% 4% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 4% -8.6%
10% -21.7% 4% -17.4%
15% -29.2% 4% -25.4%
20% -36.2% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×4.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.0 per $1 lost it wins $3.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses20 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)74 / 77
History coverage525d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $70 +$3 +4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $168 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $7 +$7 +111%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $204 +$10 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$4 +39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $33 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $74 +$8 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -7%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $110 +$5 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $92 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $37 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $79 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $74 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $42 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $63 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $193 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $16 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $83 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $35 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $2 +$1 +42%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 17 $2 $0 -13%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $13 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $37 $0 -0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $163 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $48 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $45 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $24 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $7 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $22 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $13 19h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $66 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $73 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $61 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $9 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $74 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $19 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $27 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $29 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $23 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $36 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 17¢ $14 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $58 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $58 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $29 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $56 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $0.00 · 357 history records