Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f56…74fe crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+2%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate78%31W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day55.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 40% -10.5%
≤30d 40 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 40% -10.5%
≤90d 40 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 40% -10.5%
all 40 -0.5% -10.0% 78% 40% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 40% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 25% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 15% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses31 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day55.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records