Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f58…bc49 crypto 554 markets active 4h ago coverage 570d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16,661 (+65%) realized +$16,693 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%220W / 318L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$515
14 days−$515
30 days−$508
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 78% +$16,603
crypto 10% +$74
other 7% +$441
world 4% −$555
tech 1% +$48
sports 0% −$6
culture 0% −$106
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 -9.3% -18.0% 46% 46% -26.1%
≤30d 385 -9.3% -18.0% 46% 46% -25.6%
≤90d 391 -5.3% -14.3% 47% 46% -20.5%
all 538 -11.2% -19.6% 41% 38% +49.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 38% +49.9%
10% -27.3% 37% +35.5%
15% -34.3% 35% +22.4%
20% -40.8% 31% +10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +67% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$14 · ×6.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.68 per $1 lost it wins $4.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

570d coverage
Net worth$160
Realized+$16,693
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses220 / 318
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Open positions16
Markets (closed)538 / 554
History coverage570d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 538 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+10%)
Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $29 $15 −$13 (-46%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-5%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $22 $4 −$18 (-80%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 145 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 −$4 -60%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -37%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -25%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -22%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$8 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$7 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$20 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 12h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 12h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.84 · official $159.84 (match) · 2007 history records