Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:03:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
0F 0x0f59…7f66 sports 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$551 (-40%) realized −$446 · open −$105
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%29W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$189
other 39% −$398
sports 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$7
world 3% −$1
culture 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -44.4% -49.7% 0% 0% -49.7%
≤90d 4 -8.8% -17.4% 50% 25% -40.5%
all 54 -17.0% -24.9% 54% 48% -59.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 48% -59.5%
10% -32.1% 30% -63.3%
15% -38.7% 20% -66.9%
20% -44.7% 13% -70.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$21 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$446
Unrealized−$105
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses29 / 25
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)54 / 58
History coverage343d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $58 $54 −$3 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $136 $35 −$101 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $184 −$82 -44%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele May 16 $21 $0 +2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $34 −$3 -8%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $4 +$1 +15%
Open Sud de France: Luca Nardi vs Flavio Cobolli Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open? Mar 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on February 7? Mar 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Hailey Baptiste Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Mar 23 $1 $0 -34%
Valorant: Global Esports vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Mar 19 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Perseverance Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: WOPA Esport vs XI Esport (BO3) Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Mar 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Transylvania Open: Xinyu Wang vs Oleksandra Oliynykova Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Varvara Grac Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Vera Zvonareva vs Shuai Zhang Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Moyuka Uchijima vs Rebecca Sramkova Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $11 +$5 +46%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 09 $1 $0 -10%
Valorant: All Gamers vs XLG Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff Playoffs Feb 07 $1 +$1 +82%
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Alec Deckers Feb 07 $1 $0 +19%
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams Feb 07 $2 +$1 +32%
Heat vs. Celtics Feb 07 $2 +$1 +47%
Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirds Feb 07 $3 +$1 +25%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Kimberly Birrell Feb 07 $1 +$1 +66%
US strikes Iran by February 8, 2026? Feb 07 $3 $0 +2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 6? Feb 07 $1 +$1 +38%
Qatar Total Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Julia Grabher Feb 06 $1 $0 +49%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 06 $2 $0 -0%
Senators vs. Flyers Feb 06 $1 $0 +12%
Predators vs. Capitals Feb 06 $1 $0 +20%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Feb 06 $1 $0 +25%
Hornets vs. Rockets Feb 06 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $1 $0 +12%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Feb 06 $1 $0 +32%
Transylvania Open: Emma Raducanu vs Maja Chwalinska Feb 06 $1 $0 +33%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded? Feb 06 $1 +$1 +52%
Open Sud de France: Tallon Griekspoor vs Pablo Carreno Busta Feb 06 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 06 $1 +$1 +89%
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sonay Kartal vs Sara Bejlek Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 30 $19 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 23 $23 $0 +2%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 23? Dec 23 $3 −$2 -82%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Dec 23 $30 −$1 -2%
Hornets vs. Cavaliers Dec 23 $1 $0 +19%
Jazz vs. Nuggets Dec 23 $1 $0 +16%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 23 $1 $0 +12%
Will Solana reach $250 September 8–14? Sep 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $40 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY $10 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 12¢ $50 1h
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 21d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $31 21d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $33 22d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 17¢ $62 22d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $77 22d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $78 22d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes $25 31d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $63 34d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 14¢ $62 34d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $121 37d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $122 37d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 43d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 10¢ $197 43d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL No 55¢ $3 43d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY No 63¢ $4 56d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 56¢ $4 56d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 61¢ $4 87d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $4 88d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 87¢ $4 96d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group SELL Team Yandex 50¢ $1 97d
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BUY Team Yandex 76¢ $1 97d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 83¢ $1 140d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Seahawks 68¢ $3 140d
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Alec Deckers SELL Gaston 100¢ $1 141d
Rotterdam Open, Qualification: Hugo Gaston vs Alec Deckers BUY Gaston 84¢ $1 141d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff BUY Gen.G Esports 74¢ $1 141d
Valorant: Global Esports vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff BUY Gen.G Esports 75¢ $1 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.94 · official $138.67 · 147 history records