Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f5a…b4fa world 103 markets active 2h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%29W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$23
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$52
other 21% +$3
sports 14% −$3
politics 9% −$3
economics 5% +$1
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+0.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 36 +32.5% +19.9% 31% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 86 +12.5% +1.7% 29% 3% -9.9%
all 101 +10.6% +0.0% 29% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.0% 3% -9.9%
10% -9.5% 2% -18.5%
15% -18.3% 2% -26.4%
20% -26.3% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses29 / 72
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)101 / 103
History coverage340d
Avg bet$145
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 81¢ $112 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $123 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $111 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $157 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $112 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $412 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $146 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $232 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $169 −$21 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $21 −$2 -8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 11 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -17%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $124 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $113 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $114 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $116 −$3 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $309 +$2 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $465 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $640 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $117 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $487 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $117 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $225 +$5 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 01 $113 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $123 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $112 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $270 −$42 -16%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $120 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $104 +$6 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $109 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $108 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $104 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $122 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $133 +$1 +1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $121 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $330 +$2 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $315 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $163 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $4 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $383 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $220 +$1 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $112 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $105 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $19 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $123 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $111 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $111 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $52 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $60 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $112 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $112 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $49 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $60 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $69 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $69 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $121 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $122 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $89 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $110 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $110 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $110 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $110 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $50 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.64 · official $110.84 (match) · 487 history records