Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:50:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f5f…46d8 other 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$126 (+1%) realized +$159 · open −$33
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate81%140W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$18
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$181
sports 16% −$4
crypto 5% −$83
world 1% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -3.7% -12.9% 78% 22% -10.8%
≤30d 23 +0.9% -8.7% 83% 13% -8.4%
≤90d 44 +6.7% -3.5% 89% 27% -3.3%
all 172 -2.7% -11.9% 81% 22% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 22% -8.8%
10% -20.4% 7% -17.6%
15% -28.1% 3% -25.5%
20% -35.1% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$41 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized+$159
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses140 / 32
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)172 / 178
History coverage171d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 100¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 96¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $42 −$58 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $103 −$4 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$26 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$10 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $301 +$19 +6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 +$136 +67%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$154 -77%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev Jun 01 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? May 28 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Bayern Munich win DFB-Pokal? May 24 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Al-Hilal win Saudi Professional League? May 21 $100 +$11 +11%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $401 +$21 +5%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $56 +$25 +45%
Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $200 +$45 +22%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $602 +$11 +2%
Will Australia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $401 +$7 +2%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $99 +$2 +2%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $201 $0 +0%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $143 +$6 +4%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Moldova advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $107 +$13 +12%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $91 +$25 +27%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $267 +$32 +12%
Will no male player win a calendar Grand Slam in 2026? May 05 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $144 +$14 +10%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? Apr 20 $92 +$52 +56%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 08 $101 +$123 +121%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 31 $224 +$46 +20%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Olympique Lyonnais end in a draw? Mar 30 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? Mar 27 $317 +$6 +2%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $106 −$105 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Arisa win Sanremo 2026? Mar 01 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen win UMK 2026? Mar 01 $194 +$6 +3%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $93 +$9 +10%
Rio Open: Yannick Hanfmann vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Feb 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $98 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 31h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $100 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 3d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 93¢ $100 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 95¢ $200 5d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $100 5d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $100 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $301 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $339 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $202 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $100 7d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $104 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 88¢ $201 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY $11 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 13d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 17d
Will Matteo Arnaldi win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 95¢ $100 18d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? BUY No 96¢ $100 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 33¢ $102 22d
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Rublev BUY Mensik 92¢ $100 22d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 22d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $100 24d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 24d
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $100 24d
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 26d
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 97¢ $100 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.47 · official $567.47 (match) · 559 history records