Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:11:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f60…ac60 sports 13 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$357 (-17%) realized −$370 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$467
other 49% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 42% -25.6%
≤30d 12 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 42% -25.6%
≤90d 12 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 42% -25.6%
all 12 -18.6% -26.4% 42% 42% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 42% -25.6%
10% -33.4% 8% -32.8%
15% -39.8% 8% -39.3%
20% -45.7% 8% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$82 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized−$370
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 94¢ 100¢ $199 $211 +$13 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $151 +$21 +14%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$34 -68%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 −$3 -6%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $614 +$136 +22%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 22 $269 −$21 -8%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $191 −$188 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 94¢ $199 14m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $172 23m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 9h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 12¢ $17 20h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 36¢ $51 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 67¢ $47 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 57¢ $253 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $81 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $361 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 92¢ $205 46h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 62¢ $166 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $51 47h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 74¢ $249 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $68 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 79¢ $201 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) SELL Egypt 100¢ $114 2d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 88¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $89 3d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 47¢ $102 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 55¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.36 · official $211.36 (match) · 31 history records