Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:26:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
0F 0x0f61…8687 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$875 (+27%) realized +$1,571 · open −$696
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$541
crypto 25% −$722
sports 3% +$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +27.4% +15.3% 22% 22% +19.0%
≤30d 18 +27.4% +15.3% 22% 22% +19.0%
≤90d 18 +27.4% +15.3% 22% 22% +19.0%
all 18 +27.4% +15.3% 22% 22% +19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.3% 22% +19.0%
10% +4.3% 22% +7.7%
15% -5.8% 22% -2.7%
20% -15.0% 22% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +116% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$474 vs −$77 · ×6.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1,571
Unrealized−$696
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)18 / 25
History coverage6d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $101 $1 −$100 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 20 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $103 −$26 -25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $557 +$596 +107%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $841 −$285 -34%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $97 −$97 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$5 -5%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$1,001 +970%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$172 +335%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$126 +246%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? SELL Yes 4¢ $77 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,153 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $557 47h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 35¢ $556 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $841 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 58¢ $97 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,104 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $97 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $224 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $52 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.99 · official $4.99 (match) · 44 history records