Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
0F 0x0f62…1239 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$325 (+31%) realized +$247 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$316
sports 37% +$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +6.7% -3.4% 54% 54% +24.4%
≤30d 13 +6.7% -3.4% 54% 54% +24.4%
≤90d 13 +6.7% -3.4% 54% 54% +24.4%
all 13 +6.7% -3.4% 54% 54% +24.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 54% +24.4%
10% -12.7% 46% +12.5%
15% -21.1% 46% +1.6%
20% -28.8% 38% -8.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 58% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$44 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$247
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Yes 56¢ 100¢ $100 $178 +$78 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $153 +$232 +152%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$84 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$5 -5%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 +$57 +38%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -88%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$102 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $25 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $99 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $151 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $204 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.48 · official $178.48 (match) · 24 history records