Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
0F 0x0f63…c69b other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 165d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$191 (+21%) realized +$192 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +50% what you keep after slip
Net edge+50%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 165d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$1
sports 33% −$5
economics 15% +$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+50.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -8.2% -17.0% 0% 0% -17.0%
≤90d 1 -8.2% -17.0% 0% 0% -17.0%
all 2 +65.8% +50.0% 50% 50% +78.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.0% 50% +78.8%
10% +35.7% 50% +61.7%
15% +22.6% 50% +46.1%
20% +10.6% 50% +31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +98% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$201 vs −$5 · ×42.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×42.64 per $1 lost it wins $42.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized+$192
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage165d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $156 $172 +$16 (+10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $45 $28 −$17 (-38%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $11 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $304 −$5 -2%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 10 $144 +$201 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.72 · official $264.72 (match) · 75 history records