Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f67…866e other 566 markets active 0h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$255 (-0%) realized −$219 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate78%438W / 126L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days−$92
14 days−$392
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$53
crypto 10% +$8
tech 6% +$12
sports 3% −$278
weather 3% +$18
culture 1% +$1
politics 0% +$1
world 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -12.2% -20.5% 42% 40% -12.0%
≤30d 132 -15.5% -23.5% 45% 35% -16.6%
≤90d 253 -6.6% -15.5% 69% 21% -10.6%
all 564 -2.7% -12.0% 78% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 10% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 6% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 5% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$15 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses438 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions2
Markets (closed)564 / 566
History coverage198d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ 100¢ $49 $55 +$6 (+12%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) FURIA 46¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $48 +$72 +151%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $97 +$76 +78%
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $48 +$44 +92%
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Jun 18 $49 +$60 +122%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $30 +$25 +84%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $48 −$23 -49%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $37 +$32 +85%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $39 +$19 +48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $49 +$36 +73%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $48 +$52 +109%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai Jun 17 $48 +$38 +79%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) Jun 17 $48 +$54 +114%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $48 +$45 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $54 −$4 -8%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 16 $54 +$11 +20%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 16 $9 +$3 +31%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $53 +$87 +165%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 16 $53 +$15 +28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -9%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Buse vs. Jodar: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $53 −$2 -3%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +85%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +65%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$9 +97%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $11 +$5 +42%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $50 +$44 +87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $50 +$33 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 65¢ $119 5m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 25¢ $48 1h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $43 2h
ITF Tulsa: Duncan Chan vs Braden Shick BUY Duncan Chan 43¢ $49 3h
ITF Tulsa: Ilyas Milad Fahim vs Jeffrey John Wolf BUY Jeffrey John Wolf 89¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $49 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $48 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $48 5h
ITF Luque: Romina Ccuno vs Emily Zornada BUY Emily Zornada 37¢ $49 5h
Set Handicap: Shelton (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) BUY Quinn 44¢ $49 7h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Caty McNally 29¢ $25 7h
ITF Blois: Julia Riera vs Ipek Oz BUY Julia Riera 11¢ $47 7h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner BUY Rooster 54¢ $30 8h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Caty McNally 54¢ $48 9h
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 53¢ $37 16h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 67¢ $39 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $29 25h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 57¢ $49 26h
Dublin: Jurij Rodionov vs Colton Smith BUY Colton Smith 54¢ $48 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 49¢ $49 30h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 47¢ $48 31h
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Michele Ribecai BUY Michele Ribecai 55¢ $48 32h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 55¢ $22 34h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 54¢ $26 34h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 2d
Spread: Indiana Fever (-8.5) BUY Indiana Fever 46¢ $48 2d
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 98¢ $50 2d
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell SELL Birrell 54¢ $50 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 71¢ $64 2d
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.96 · official $54.96 (match) · 1495 history records