Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
0F 0x0f6f…596b other 145 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$19
other 29% −$25
sports 16% −$13
crypto 7% −$2
economics 5% −$3
culture 4% −$4
finance 3% −$5
world 3% −$5
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 65 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 119 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 144 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 128
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)144 / 145
History coverage107d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 144 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $493 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $68 −$2 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $99 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $108 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $233 −$3 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $255 −$3 -1%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $49 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $56 −$2 -4%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $54 $0 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $323 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $237 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $362 −$1 -0%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $52 −$3 -5%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 06 $69 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $24 −$1 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 05 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $46 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $260 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 03 $52 −$2 -5%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $43 −$1 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $238 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $166 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $260 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $352 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $53 2h
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $53 7h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $45 7h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $45 15h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $59 16h
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 23h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $50 23h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $50 28h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 95¢ $66 28h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $68 36h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 37h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 45h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 46h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $52 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $48 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $49 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $53 3d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $53 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $48 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $50 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $51 4d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.30 · official $47.30 (match) · 533 history records